Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Shift in American Diplomacy?

The more I think about it, the more it gets complex. The context is: Has US really shifted its policy on the weapons and strategic balance in the Indian subcontinent in India's favour.

This is clear that the USA has been under pressure to return the money that it took from Pakistan to provide it with F-16 fighter jets. But my mind refuses to think that the money has been decisive factor. The entire world knows that the US has given Pakistan hundreds of millions of dollar as freebies in lieu of letting it use Pakistani soil for making army base for attacks on Al-Quida and Iraq. So, what then has been the basic impulse to clear export of F-16s to Pakistan?

In my opinion, doing that server the USA the following benefits:
  • It ensures the availability of Pakistan's land for army base
  • US will always be within a striking distance for Al-Quida
  • US will be able to influence Pakistan governance better to control Islamic fundamentalists
  • It gives USA army a direct presence in South Asia (long term strategy, just in case)
Keeping in mind so many benefits, it was only expected that the USA will go ahead with the F-16 deal with Pakistan. What then has been the reason behind immediate clarification of the US government on the issue to India. I see the following facts that played the role:
  • India's strong protest about arms race. USA knows very well that India will need to think about its counter weapon
  • USA sees it as a win win situation. Regardless of who buys the jets, they stand to make money
  • USA would like India to be a major alternative (given that no other country in the region would be able to provide shoulders as strong as India's), just in case Pakistan is forced to go back by Islamic fundamentalists
  • USA understands that India would anyway find the alternates, and it finds it a better option to sell F-18s to India and make it its own ally than upset it and weaken the ties
  • USA really sees India as the rising world economic and military power and hence wants to keep the company
Whatever the reason, at the moment, the waves seem to be blowing in India's favor, with a clearly worded US govt official's remark about USA wanting to help India establish itself as major world power. But India needs to be on guard. Dependence on USA is not a great way to live.